TIMOTHY MORELAND

TIMOTHY MORELAND

Assistant Professor in Economics

ABOUT ME

I am an Assistant Professor of Economics at The University of North Carolina – Greensboro.

I conduct research within the field of macroeconomics with a focus on monetary policy, financial markets and firm heterogeneity. At UNC Greensboro, I teach courses on money and banking, macroeconomics and business statistics.

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CV

CURRENT POSITION

2021-present Assistant Professor, University of North Carolina - Greensboro, Department of Economics

PAST POSITIONS

2014-2016 Research Assistant, Minnesota Population Center, Minneapolis, MN
2012-2014 Technical Research Assistant, MDRC, New York, NY
2011-2012 Market Research Analyst, Management Science Associates, Pittsburgh, PA

EDUCATION

2016-2021 PhD & MA in Economics, Michigan State University
Field: Macroeconomics
2014-2016 Master of Public Policy (MPP), University of Minnesota
2006-2009 BS in Economics & Political Science, University of Pittsburgh

WORKING PAPERS

Monetary Policy and Firm Heterogeneity: The Role of Leverage Since the Financial Crisis
      with Aeimit Lakdawala
Financial Consolidation, Corporate Finance and Firm Investment in the Business Cycle
      with Sotirios Kokas and Raoul Minetti
Monetary Policy and Firm-Level Uncertainty
      with Aeimit Lakdawala
Firm-Level Uncertainty and the Transmission of Monetary Policy
      with Aeimit Lakdawala

PUBLICATIONS

The International Spillover Effects of US Monetary Policy Uncertainty
      with Aeimit Lakdawala and Matthew Schaffer
      (Journal of International Economics, Vol 133, 103525, November 2021)

WORK IN PROGRESS

Global banks and macroeconomic stability: Liquidity, control, and monitoring
      with Ralph De Haas, Marco Di Pietro and Raoul Minetti
Fiscal-Monetary Interaction and Inequality
      with Giacomo Romanini

PRESENTATIONS

2022 The Society for Economic Measurement (Calgary, Canada)
International Association for Applied Econometrics (London, UK)
Computing in Economics and Finance (Dallas, TX)
I-85 Macroeconomics Workshop (Columbia, SC)
2021 Southern Economic Association Meetings (Houston, TX)
Rotterdam School of Management’s Corporate Finance Day, Virtual
RCEA Money, Macro and Finance Conference, Virtual
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Virtual
UNC - Greensboro, Virtual
UNC - Wilmington, Virtual
2019 Workshop on Empirical Monetary Economics (Paris, France)
Midwest Macroeconomics Meetings (East Lansing, MI)
Computing in Economics and Finance (Ottawa, Canada)
Red Cedar Conference, Michigan State University (East Lansing, MI)
2018 SWiM, Michigan State University (East Lansing, MI)

TEACHING

University of North Carolina - Greensboro
      ECO 250 Economics and Business Statistics I
      ECO 327 Money and Economic Activity
      ECO 498 Seminar in Macroeconomics
Michigan State University
      EC 202 Intro to Macroeconomics

FELLOWSHIPS AND HONORS

2016-2021 Michigan State University Distinguished Fellowship
2009 Brackenridge Fellowship (University of Pittsburgh Honors College)

REFEREE

Oxford Economic Papers, Journal of Multinational Financial Management


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RESEARCH

PUBLICATIONS

The International Spillover Effects of US Monetary Policy Uncertainty (with Aeimit Lakdawala and Matthew Schaffer) [Working Paper] [Code] [Online Appendix]
Journal of International Economics, Vol 133, 103525, November 2021

WORKING PAPERS

Monetary Policy and Firm Heterogeneity: The Role of Leverage Since the Financial Crisis (with Aeimit Lakdawala) [PDF] [Appendix]
Currently Under Review

Abstract: We show that the role of leverage in explaining firm-level responses to monetary policy changed around the financial crisis of 2007-09. Stock prices of firms with high leverage were less responsive to monetary policy shocks in the pre-crisis period but have become more responsive since the crisis. Using expected volatility measures from firm-level options, we further document that financial markets have been aware of this change. The use of unconventional monetary policy tools by the Federal Reserve since the crisis played an important role in driving our results; but, we also find evidence for changing transmission of conventional tools.

Financial Consolidation, Corporate Finance and Firm Investment in the Business Cycle (with Sotirios Kokas and Raoul Minetti) [PDF]
Currently Under Review

Abstract: We study the influence of financial consolidation on the cyclical behavior of firms’ financing and investment. Using matched US firm-bank data, we find that bank consolidation raises the procyclicality of equity issuance and liquidity accumulation for small and medium-sized publicly traded firms, heightening investment sensitivity to shocks. In a model calibrated to US data, after bank consolidation the weakening in firms’ bargaining power enhances precautionary liquidity accumulation and equity issuance following positive productivity shocks, increasing investment procyclicality. The model suggests that bank consolidation contributed to a switch in smaller US firms’ equity issuance and liquidity accumulation from countercyclical to procyclical.

Firm-Level Uncertainty and the Transmission of Monetary Policy (with Aeimit Lakdawala) [PDF]
Currently Under Review

Abstract: We show that firms which face higher uncertainty adjust their investment less in response to monetary policy shocks. We find corroborating evidence of this differential effect from firm-level stock returns on FOMC announcement days. Our results are explained by a real options or “wait-and-see” channel whereby higher uncertainty dampens the response to changes in business conditions. Consistent with this mechanism the dampening effect is stronger for firms that face higher reversibility costs of investment.

Monetary Policy and Firm-Level Uncertainty (with Aeimit Lakdawala) [PDF]

Abstract: Uncertainty at the firm-level falls on FOMC announcement days with substantial variation both across firms and over time. We find that this movement is not related to surprises about the expected path of the policy rate but rather to forward guidance driven changes in uncertainty around the expected path. The effect of this monetary policy uncertainty is attenuated for firms that have higher growth opportunities (as measured by Tobin’s Q).


PROJECTS IN PROGRESS

Wage Rigidity and the Transmission of Monetary Policy

Fiscal-Monetary Interaction and Inequality (with Giacomo Romanini)

Global banks and macroeconomic stability: Liquidity, control, and monitoring (with Ralph De Haas, Marco Di Pietro and Raoul Minetti)



CONFERENCE PRESENTATIONS

The Society for Economic Measurement - August 2022 (Calgary, Canada)
International Association for Applied Econometrics - June 2022 (London, UK)
Computing in Economics and Finance - June 2022 (Dallas, TX)
I-85 Macroeconomics Workshop - April 2022 (Columbia, SC)
Southern Economic Association Meetings - November 2021 (Houston, TX)
Rotterdam School of Management's Corporate Finance Day - October 2021
RCEA Money, Macro and Finance Conference - July 2021
Workshop on Empirical Monetary Economics - December 2019 (Paris, France)
Midwest Macroeconomics Meetings - November 2019 (East Lansing, Michigan)
Computing in Economics and Finance - June 2019 (Ottawa, Canada)

TEACHING

FALL 2022

ECO 327 Money and Economic Activity
ECO 498 Macro Seminar in Economics

PREVIOUS

ECO 250 Economics and Business Statistics I
Intro to Macroeconomics


STUDENT EVALUATION SUMMARY

Average Instructor Evaluation (Overall): 4.5 (out of 5)
Average Instructor Evaluation (In-Person Courses): 4.7 (out of 5)


SELECT COMMENTS FROM STUDENT EVALUATIONS:
"He was professional, engaging and thoughtful. I could not be more pleased with this course. I believe that Dr. Moreland is such a phenomenal asset to the Bryan School."
"Overall I can see Professor Moreland cares about his students and is always available for them when they need help."
"Dr. Moreland has been awesome since before day one of our course. Dr. Moreland has always been open, honest, and very encouraging."
"Great class and lots of teacher interaction."

CONTACT

Get in Touch

trmoreland@uncg.edu